In “Obama moving toward the center” (Dec 11), the Inquirer makes the case that overriding its own scientific advisers on the “Plan B” issue may have cost the Obama Administration the votes and/or enthusiasm of “base” voters, but that the Administration stands to gain anyway as now centrist voters will be more likely to support President Obama’s re-election.
Celinda Lake is one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent pollsters and her take on the Obama Administration’s Plan B decision: “alienates the base, causes conflict with women in the base, [is] bad for key groups of women like younger women and unmarried women, and,” very importantly, “doesn’t win the swing independent women.” Lake takes issue with the idea that kicking the liberal base voter automatically results in centrist voters flocking to support Democrats.
Obama made a very energetic play for centrist votes in the mid-2011 debt ceiling compromise. New Jersey Newsroom found on August 18th that independents weren’t at all happy about the compromise and blamed participants a great more than they credited anybody, but Republicans got 20% of the blame as compared to the Obama Administration getting only 15% of the blame. Only 22% of all voters thought the Republican strategy of cutting spending only (As opposed to raising taxes or a mix of the two) was a sensible one. It gained the Obama Administration absolutely nothing to play the centrist game. On the contrary, they would have done far better to have taken a strong position and to have then held onto it.
Is there a better way available to get votes? Actually, there is. According to extensive polling by CNN and Public Policy Polling, Obama’s problem in 2010 was not voters turning against him or switching parties for any reason, it was pro-Obama voters not showing up at the polls to re-affirm the choice they made in 2008. Specifically, younger women rewarded the Democrats in 2008 with very strong majorities because Democrats took a very strong pro-choice position on the abortion issue. Those same women stayed home in large numbers in 2010 because they felt abandoned by Democrats.
No, the answer for Democrats is not to play the centrist game, it’s to be better Democrats and to more strongly support Democratic values and their own base.
